I don't claim any visionary power, but it's not difficult to see one result of the AI frenzy.
1. The trigger will be the bankruptcy of OpenAI. That's now inevitable, and given the pull back of investors, their absurd burn rate, the absence of senior management with deep operations and sales experience, and their ridiculous valuation, it will occur near term.
Could they be saved?
Absolutely, but it would require a complete restructuring of the firm and their objective.
The problem is the restructuring isn't politically or culturally possible inside that organization.
This is not a company in distress — it’s a company in terminal acceleration toward insolvency.
2. Investors will be much more reluctant to pour in funding to every other AI firm.
It isn't difficult to understand there's an old pattern that applies here too: capital flight from the sector once the flagship shows signs of collapse.
3. Startups and early - mid stage firms that are not profitable and rely on continued investing will vanish.
OpenAi's burn is driven by compute cost, train, and infrastructure. These costs are identical across the board.
4. Two major firms will survive: Microsoft and Google. Both have deep pockets and multiple revenue streams and can absorb even a $100B loss without foundational shock.
5. Anthropic can survive, but only near term. Long term survival would be viable if Google and Microsoft propped them up... but why would they do that?
Link to watch: https://youtu.be/4SIqfipjDuI?si=3UC9mvIK7WIJ5Qqq